About PM Crypto Notes
PM Crypto Notes is a set of essays about how on-chain prediction markets work. Each essay states a thesis, argues it from evidence, and ends with what would change our mind. The liquidity page is built from public Polymarket order-book data and refreshes automatically.
How this site works
Essays
Each essay opens with a one-sentence thesis, builds it from linked sources and our own data, gives the strongest argument against it, and ends with what would change our mind. Opinions are ours and labeled as such; the facts under them are sourced.
Liquidity data
The liquidity page takes the 300 open Polymarket events with the most order-book liquidity and keeps every open contract inside them. Liquidity is Polymarket's own figure for resting depth. Spread is best ask minus best bid on the YES side. Daily turnover is 24-hour volume divided by liquidity. Categories come from Polymarket's event tags.
What we write about
- Market Structure
- Liquidity, spreads, concentration, and who trades.
- Mechanisms
- Oracles, resolution, collateral, and contract design.
Data
- Where the liquidity is: Polymarket markets ranked by order-book liquidity, with spreads, turnover, and medians by category.
How we work
Essays are credited to PM Crypto Notes. We use AI tools to help research and draft, and every claim is checked against a linked source before publication. The editorial policy has the full rules.