PM Crypto Notes
- Polymarket Liquidity by Category: Where Order Books Are Thin
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket's 300 deepest open events carried $406.7 million of reported liquidity across 20,004 contracts, by our count. 71% sat on contracts priced under 5 cents, and 87% of contracts had no trades in 24 hours. Our view is that most of that depth is paid-for inventory, and most prices on the venue are unpriced.
- Prediction Market Resolution Disputes in 2026: Which Oracle Holds Up
In 2026, UMA token holders settled Polymarket disputes worth hundreds of millions while many voters held positions, and outcomes are final once voted. Kalshi made settlement errors too, but reversed or compensated them and answers in court. Our view is that rules locked at listing, settled by an accountable operator, hold up best.
- Perps Meet Prediction Markets: Where the Two Products Converge
As of November 10, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket run perpetual futures and Hyperliquid runs HIP-4 outcome markets beside its perps. Our view is that venues are converging on one account and margin engine, while the contracts stay separate, because a binary that jumps to 0 or 1 at resolution cannot be leveraged like a continuous price.
- Prediction Market Wallet Concentration and the Wisdom of the Crowd
An August 2026 briefing found the top 1% of Polymarket wallets produced 68% of congressional-market volume. That matches platform-wide data and fits marginal-trader theory, so it does not prove prices are wrong. Our view is that it makes each price depend on informed capital trading against the biggest wallet, which most thin midterm markets lacked.