Mechanisms
Oracles, resolution, collateral, and contract design.
- Prediction Market Resolution Disputes in 2026: Which Oracle Holds Up
In 2026, UMA token holders settled Polymarket disputes worth hundreds of millions while many voters held positions, and outcomes are final once voted. Kalshi made settlement errors too, but reversed or compensated them and answers in court. Our view is that rules locked at listing, settled by an accountable operator, hold up best.
- Perps Meet Prediction Markets: Where the Two Products Converge
As of November 10, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket run perpetual futures and Hyperliquid runs HIP-4 outcome markets beside its perps. Our view is that venues are converging on one account and margin engine, while the contracts stay separate, because a binary that jumps to 0 or 1 at resolution cannot be leveraged like a continuous price.