Market Structure
Liquidity, spreads, concentration, and who trades.
- Polymarket Liquidity by Category: Where Order Books Are Thin
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket's 300 deepest open events carried $406.7 million of reported liquidity across 20,004 contracts, by our count. 71% sat on contracts priced under 5 cents, and 87% of contracts had no trades in 24 hours. Our view is that most of that depth is paid-for inventory, and most prices on the venue are unpriced.
- Prediction Market Wallet Concentration and the Wisdom of the Crowd
An August 2026 briefing found the top 1% of Polymarket wallets produced 68% of congressional-market volume. That matches platform-wide data and fits marginal-trader theory, so it does not prove prices are wrong. Our view is that it makes each price depend on informed capital trading against the biggest wallet, which most thin midterm markets lacked.