Essays
Arguments about where prediction markets are going.
- AI Agents in Prediction Markets: Accuracy, Manipulation, Disputes
AI agents already trade prediction markets through Polymarket's SDKs and agent skills, Olas's Polystrat and Public's Kalshi tie-up, and machine-run wallets placed 63% of Polymarket trades in a year to August 2026. Our view is that agents improve deep, numeric markets and raise manipulation and dispute risk in thin markets that settle on wording.
- Prediction Market Volume Is the Wrong Headline Number
Reported volume is the wrong headline metric for prediction markets. In our November 11, 2026 pull, 68.9% of Kalshi's 24-hour volume came from contracts that open and close within a day, and Polymarket's intraday crypto series did 18.1% of its volume on $26,229 of open interest. We propose open interest plus contested depth.